‘America’ Decides: The Fate of the Electoral College and its threat to Democracy

Many voters are beginning to feel the weight of their decision when voting the next president of the United States, but the contingent liability of the electoral college might shock and sweep them off their feet.

On April 30, 1789, George Washington stood on the balcony of Federal Hall in New York, took his oath of office as the first president of the United States, and set the precedent to lead a legacy of 45 presidents after him. Unfortunately, he did not predict the waning of democracy displayed by a bipartisan government, where its constitution became more important than its people.

There is no doubt that 2024 has created an election cycle as volatile as ever. A year marked by tense US-Middle Eastern relations, followed by two assassination attempts since President John F. Kennedy in 1963. There might even be a Black female president for the first time in history. Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump are nearly deadlocked in early polls, with the former narrowly leading. It was not long ago that Donald Trump won his presidency and historically made himself the first president to be criminally indicted. As well as this, he became the fifth president to win the electoral vote but lose the national popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

What is the Electoral College and how does it affect the national popular vote?

The question might lie within what we understand as popularity. In 1776 when America had only 13 states, congress wrote the constitution and selected the next president because they feared voters wouldn't be able to choose for themselves, given the sparsity of states and bigger populations could sway the vote. Therefore, they decided the people would indirectly vote for their preferred candidate through their state legislatures. A slate of electors then gather together and cast their vote; a decision that lets the winner take all and count each state until each elector successfully gains more than 270 electoral votes.

The electoral system is created to delegate fairness across the country, but it has often caused political ire. There have been only five elections that were won by the electoral system; 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016. Each candidate (except John Quincy Adams who had no political party affiliation) were Republican. There may be no correlation of partiality between these wins and the other presidents, but it is a significant pattern. It may help us understand why the introduction of political parties became a watershed in American politics.

Democrat? Or Republican? What is the difference?

The Democratic Party was founded in 1828 while the Republican party dates to 1854. The electoral college never imagined a population governed by political parties in 1796. Today where political indifference thrives, the terms ‘Republican’ and ‘Democrat’ have arguably become shibboleths, where the sense of united identity has overpowered the belief for ultimate progression. In fact, it can be argued that they are two sides of the same coin. Rasheed Muhammad, a USC Law graduate student shared the same sentiment.

“I would argue potentially because the Republican party in the 1800s was a lot different [...] and they espoused different values, [...] you know, there was the great switch in the ‘60s”.

Rasheed is referring to the exodus of Republican support after President Barry Goldwater publicly opposed the Civil Rights Act which Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson signed into law.

Contrary to popular belief, Republicans were considered liberal while Democrats were staunchly conservative; the former fought for abolition of slavery which the latter denied as most Democrats were in southern states and therefore smaller communities.

Lynce Pollidor, a senior studying philosophy, politics and law expressed a similar sentiment when discussing the favored Republican vote from the electoral college. She also recognized the party switch in values but noted that geography is the reason for the advantage. “I do think that there’s a deeper issue and not the electoral college but rather deep redistricting that occurs because I think when you redistrict you can definitely sway a state”.

What are swing states and how do they affect the future of the election?

A state like Alabama has become safely ‘Republican’ whereas a state like Massachusetts is more ‘Democrat’. This year however, states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania have become too ambivalent to tell simply by optics. Extreme effort, funding and strategy is done to sway them to either party, hence the name ‘swing states’. The New York Times once called them ‘toss ups’, as they have become the ultimate deciding factor to win the presidential election. They are, as Lynce called them; “yo-yo states”.

There is a hidden semantic within these terms; swing states suggest back and forth dependence, and therefore chance. If the electoral college is a democratic system, then voters may want to reconsider how fair and objective this method is. Swing state voters may feel like political pawns that maneuver the fate of the election in the candidate’s best interests. Others may feel ignored. This lack of decisiveness gives too much power to the electoral college and neglects the existence of the national popular vote.

Lynce resonated, being from Florida herself which had been a swing state during the Obama administration but flipped Republican after Trump’s election.

“Because they're heavily campaigning in those swing states, other voters in other states may not fully understand the candidates as much versus like the people in swing states and they do become more polarized,” said Lynce.

The result is either Republican or a Democrat; no one else has succeeded to introduce a grounded third party. For most Americans, it is a collective responsibility to vote but the existence of the electoral college has constitutionally embedded American voting.

Nevertheless, it has simultaneously stripped the meaning of democracy at the expense of its people.